Winds of Change, or Breaking Wind?
It is becoming clear, even to the crown-bedazzled clique that clogs the arteries of the nation's capital, that Americans despise their Boy King and anyone who pays him obeisance. Here's the reading from Charlie Cook, who makes his living stroking tea leaves for politicians and politial junkies (via Kos):
"In terms of the political climate, the facts are clear. All of the traditional diagnostic indicators in major national polls taken in the past 10 days show numbers consistent with an electoral rout."
[-]
"In the House, where Democrats need a 15-seat gain to win a majority, Republicans have 15 seats that the Cook Political Report currently rates as tossups. No Democratic seats remain in that column. Another 21 GOP seats are rated as leaning Republican.
"In a very large tidal wave election, as this one appears to be, it would not be unusual to see all tossups go to one party, along with a few out of the leaning column as well. Republicans might lose their House majority just in the seats in which they are behind or in which their edge is within a poll's margin of error.
"In the Senate, while it is easy to get Democrats to a four- or five-seat net gain, six is tougher. But keep in mind that in the last four non-'wave' elections, between 67 and 89 percent of the races rated as 'tossups' in the final Cook Political Report pre-election ratings broke toward one party each time, a domino effect, with the close races breaking toward the party with momentum."
Assuming, for the sake of argument, that the Royalist usurpers allow Americans to cast the ballots that would make the above observations become reality (an unlikely prospect, to be sure), then certainly this must be a time of great cheer for those who want desperately to see the United States become, well, the United States again. Indeed, one of the the most dependable Royalist lackeys in Washington is perched on the brink of electoral oblivion. The ground, it seems, is rumbling. Anti-Royalist forces seem to be on the march. Victory, surely, is within our grasp.
Why, then, is one of the best of Outer Blogland's stalwarts so morose? Billmon is a contrarian, to be sure. But he has good reason to scorn the ever-more popular opinion that an Anti-Royalist blow-out is in the offing:
"Having watched the consensus wisdom (now there's an oxymoron) gradually progress over the past year from laughing at the Dems' chances, to conceding that they might pick up a few seats, to seeing a 'remote chance' for a Pelosi speakership, to warning that the Republicans are in deep trouble, to now all but forecasting a 'tidal wave' election, I would advise the Dems not to take it too seriously. We live in an era in which consensus opinion is typically wrong about almost everything, not just the war in Iraq and the next American Idol winner. "
All good points, to be sure. But Billmon doesn't stop there.
"More and more, I've come to believe the Dems are insane for even wanting a share of the responsibility for running this out-of-control madhouse of a country. It's like being invited to grab hold of a downed high-voltage power line."
True enough. But let's face it, the Anti-Royalists are the opposition party. They aren't paid to sit out the process of running the country (though, God knows, they certainly haven't been earning their paychecks for the last six years). If they don't want to sully their dainty cuticles, they can change professions (I hear Fox News is hiring). For the first time in more than a decade, Americans face the prospect of electing a Congress that doesn't have as its first order of business savaging the Constitution for personal and corporate gain.
And that, Billmon warn us, is the bad news.
"At this point I really don't give a flying f**k whether the Democrats take the House or the Senate back. No, wait, that's not true. The truth is I hope they don't. It wouldn't save us from what's coming down the road, in the Middle East and elsewhere. It wouldn't force President Psychopath to change course or seek therapy. But it would make sure that the 'left' (ha ha ha) gets more than its fair share of blame for the approaching debacle.
"That may well be the natural role of the Democratic Party in our one-and-a-half party system, but I don't want any part of it any more. Which means that when I say it's a bad sign (consensus opinion always being wrong) that Charlie Cook now thinks the Republicans are likely to lose their House and/or Senate majorities in November, I just mean that it's a bad sign for the Democratic Party and its professional hangers on.
"For the rest of us, and for whatever is left of this country's soul, it doesn't really matter. We've already lost."
On first reading, those final words left me profoundly saddened. I was jolted by the prospect that such a forceful and rational voice for what is right and true could be so thoroughly disheartened by the current state of affairs that he would be willing to surrender the fight. On second reading, those words made me infuriated. Because it occurred to me Billmon may be right.
Indeed, I'll go a step further. The criminal regime that has infested this once proud nation simply won't take the chance that Royalist losses in November will impede their march toward the American Imperium. The Thug-in-Chief can't take the chance that the Congress elected this fall will perform its Constitutional duties. If Billmon is right -- that it doesn't matter, because the Democrats don't have the testosterone to stand up to the Royalist criminals -- then the November elections will proceed as they have every even-numbered year since the founding of the Republic.
But Billmon could be wrong. It is possible the Democrats will do their duty and begin dismantling the racketeer influenced criminal organization that wrested control of our government from us. And if the Clown Prince and his minions are convinced of that... well, you know what I think will happen.
"In terms of the political climate, the facts are clear. All of the traditional diagnostic indicators in major national polls taken in the past 10 days show numbers consistent with an electoral rout."
[-]
"In the House, where Democrats need a 15-seat gain to win a majority, Republicans have 15 seats that the Cook Political Report currently rates as tossups. No Democratic seats remain in that column. Another 21 GOP seats are rated as leaning Republican.
"In a very large tidal wave election, as this one appears to be, it would not be unusual to see all tossups go to one party, along with a few out of the leaning column as well. Republicans might lose their House majority just in the seats in which they are behind or in which their edge is within a poll's margin of error.
"In the Senate, while it is easy to get Democrats to a four- or five-seat net gain, six is tougher. But keep in mind that in the last four non-'wave' elections, between 67 and 89 percent of the races rated as 'tossups' in the final Cook Political Report pre-election ratings broke toward one party each time, a domino effect, with the close races breaking toward the party with momentum."
Assuming, for the sake of argument, that the Royalist usurpers allow Americans to cast the ballots that would make the above observations become reality (an unlikely prospect, to be sure), then certainly this must be a time of great cheer for those who want desperately to see the United States become, well, the United States again. Indeed, one of the the most dependable Royalist lackeys in Washington is perched on the brink of electoral oblivion. The ground, it seems, is rumbling. Anti-Royalist forces seem to be on the march. Victory, surely, is within our grasp.
Why, then, is one of the best of Outer Blogland's stalwarts so morose? Billmon is a contrarian, to be sure. But he has good reason to scorn the ever-more popular opinion that an Anti-Royalist blow-out is in the offing:
"Having watched the consensus wisdom (now there's an oxymoron) gradually progress over the past year from laughing at the Dems' chances, to conceding that they might pick up a few seats, to seeing a 'remote chance' for a Pelosi speakership, to warning that the Republicans are in deep trouble, to now all but forecasting a 'tidal wave' election, I would advise the Dems not to take it too seriously. We live in an era in which consensus opinion is typically wrong about almost everything, not just the war in Iraq and the next American Idol winner. "
All good points, to be sure. But Billmon doesn't stop there.
"More and more, I've come to believe the Dems are insane for even wanting a share of the responsibility for running this out-of-control madhouse of a country. It's like being invited to grab hold of a downed high-voltage power line."
True enough. But let's face it, the Anti-Royalists are the opposition party. They aren't paid to sit out the process of running the country (though, God knows, they certainly haven't been earning their paychecks for the last six years). If they don't want to sully their dainty cuticles, they can change professions (I hear Fox News is hiring). For the first time in more than a decade, Americans face the prospect of electing a Congress that doesn't have as its first order of business savaging the Constitution for personal and corporate gain.
And that, Billmon warn us, is the bad news.
"At this point I really don't give a flying f**k whether the Democrats take the House or the Senate back. No, wait, that's not true. The truth is I hope they don't. It wouldn't save us from what's coming down the road, in the Middle East and elsewhere. It wouldn't force President Psychopath to change course or seek therapy. But it would make sure that the 'left' (ha ha ha) gets more than its fair share of blame for the approaching debacle.
"That may well be the natural role of the Democratic Party in our one-and-a-half party system, but I don't want any part of it any more. Which means that when I say it's a bad sign (consensus opinion always being wrong) that Charlie Cook now thinks the Republicans are likely to lose their House and/or Senate majorities in November, I just mean that it's a bad sign for the Democratic Party and its professional hangers on.
"For the rest of us, and for whatever is left of this country's soul, it doesn't really matter. We've already lost."
On first reading, those final words left me profoundly saddened. I was jolted by the prospect that such a forceful and rational voice for what is right and true could be so thoroughly disheartened by the current state of affairs that he would be willing to surrender the fight. On second reading, those words made me infuriated. Because it occurred to me Billmon may be right.
Indeed, I'll go a step further. The criminal regime that has infested this once proud nation simply won't take the chance that Royalist losses in November will impede their march toward the American Imperium. The Thug-in-Chief can't take the chance that the Congress elected this fall will perform its Constitutional duties. If Billmon is right -- that it doesn't matter, because the Democrats don't have the testosterone to stand up to the Royalist criminals -- then the November elections will proceed as they have every even-numbered year since the founding of the Republic.
But Billmon could be wrong. It is possible the Democrats will do their duty and begin dismantling the racketeer influenced criminal organization that wrested control of our government from us. And if the Clown Prince and his minions are convinced of that... well, you know what I think will happen.
posted by wally at 6:00 PM
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